编辑｜MAX

编者按：下面的文字是一段AI生成的视频文本，近期在网上流行。这段视频模仿巴菲特老人家的口气对AI热泼了一瓢冷水。我们认为这虽然不是巴菲特本人的话，但其中的一些信息和逻辑值得借鉴。我们把它翻译过来，供读者一阅。希望对你有启发帮助。

英文原文： We're sitting here in late 2025, and I'm watching the biggest tech companies in America spend 400 billion on AI infrastructure in a single year. That's not a typo—400 billion.

中文翻译： 我们现在身处2025年末，我正目睹美国最大的科技公司在一年内投入4000亿美元用于AI基础设施。这不是笔误——4000亿美元。

英文原文： Microsoft. Amazon. Google. Meta. They're all in a race to build data centers that could cover Manhattan. They're buying chips like there's no tomorrow, signing deals worth hundreds of billions with companies that don't even have revenue yet.

中文翻译： 微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta。它们都在竞相建造足以覆盖曼哈顿的数据中心。它们拼命购买芯片，与那些甚至还没有营收的公司签署价值数千亿美元的协议。

英文原文： And folks, I'm getting that same sinking feeling I had back in 1999.

中文翻译： 朋友们，我又有了那种不祥的预感，就像1999年时一样。

英文原文： You see, I'm 95 years old now, and I've lived through enough market cycles to tell you one simple truth: When everyone's running in the same direction, you'd better look behind you to see what's chasing them. Because more often than not, they're running toward a cliff.

中文翻译： 你看，我现在95岁了，经历了足够多的市场周期，可以告诉你一个简单的道理：当所有人都朝着同一个方向奔跑时，你最好看看他们身后有什么在追赶。因为很多时候，他们正跑向悬崖。

英文原文： The AI revolution is real—I won't deny that. But what's happening in the markets right now? That's not investing. That's speculation dressed up in a three-piece suit. And history has a way of punishing speculation, no matter how smart the people involved think they are.

中文翻译： AI革命是真实的——这点我不否认。但眼下市场正在发生什么？那不是投资。那是穿着三件套西装的投机。而历史总有办法惩罚投机，无论参与者认为自己有多聪明。

英文原文： Let me take you back to 1999. I was sitting in my office in Omaha, reading about internet companies with no profits, no products, and sometimes no plans, trading at valuations that would make your head spin.

中文翻译： 让我带你们回到1999年。当时我坐在奥马哈的办公室里，读到关于互联网公司的报道，它们没有利润，没有产品，有时甚至没有计划，却以高得让人头晕的估值进行交易。

英文原文： Pets.com had a sock puppet and a dream. Webvan was going to revolutionize grocery shopping. TheGlobe.com, started by two college kids with $15,000, saw its stock jump 606% on the first day of trading—never mind that they had zero revenue.

中文翻译： Pets.com只有一个袜子木偶和一个梦想。Webvan打算彻底改变杂货购物。由两个大学生用1.5万美元创立的TheGlobe.com，上市首日股价飙升了606%——尽管他们收入为零。

英文原文： And you know what everyone said about me? "Warren's lost his touch. He doesn't understand the new economy. The old man from Omaha is finished."

中文翻译： 你知道当时大家怎么说我吗？"巴菲特不行了。他不理解新经济。那个奥马哈来的老家伙完蛋了。"

英文原文： I remember one particularly painful dinner party where a young venture capitalist—couldn't have been more than 30—told me I was making the biggest mistake of my career by not investing in internet stocks. He said, and I'll never forget this: "Warren, this time is different. The internet changes everything."

中文翻译： 我记得一次特别尴尬的晚宴，一个年轻的的风险投资家——可能还不到30岁——告诉我，不投资互联网股票是我职业生涯中最大的错误。他说，我永远忘不了这句话："巴菲特，这次不一样了。互联网改变了一切。"

英文原文： Well, he was half right. The internet did change everything, but it didn't change the laws of economics. By 2002, the Nasdaq had lost 78% of its value. That young VC? I heard he went back to working at his father's car dealership.

中文翻译： 嗯，他只说对了一半。互联网确实改变了一切，但它没有改变经济规律。到2002年，纳斯达克指数下跌了78%。那个年轻的风投？我听说他回去他父亲的汽车经销店工作了。

英文原文： Now fast-forward to today. Nvidia just hit a 5 trillion market cap—5 trillion for a chip company. OpenAI is valued at 500 billion—that's half a trillion—despite posting only 13 billion in projected revenue for 2025. They've committed to spending 300 billion with Oracle over five years, which means they'll need to spend 60 billion a year while bringing in $13 billion. Even my fifth-grade arithmetic teacher could tell you that math doesn't work.

中文翻译： 现在快进到今天。英伟达市值刚刚达到5万亿美元——一家芯片公司值5万亿。OpenAI估值5000亿美元——那是半个万亿——尽管其2025年的预计收入仅为130亿美元。他们承诺五年内向甲骨文支出3000亿美元，这意味着他们每年需要花费600亿美元，而年收入只有130亿。即使是我五年级的算术老师也能告诉你，这笔账算不过来。

英文原文： But here's what really concerns me: the circular financing. Nvidia invests $100 billion in OpenAI. OpenAI turns around and spends that money buying Nvidia chips. Oracle builds data centers it hasn't finished yet, for money OpenAI hasn't earned yet. This is exactly—and I mean exactly—what we saw in the late 1990s with telecom companies.

中文翻译： 但真正让我担心的是：循环融资。英伟达向OpenAI投资1000亿美元。OpenAI转身就用这笔钱购买英伟达的芯片。甲骨文为OpenAI尚未赚到的钱，建造尚未完成的数据中心。这完全——我的意思是完全——就是我们90年代末在电信公司身上看到的情况。

英文原文： Back then, companies like Global Crossing and Level 3 Communications were laying fiber-optic cable at a breakneck pace. They were lending money to their customers to buy their services, and the customers used that money to buy more capacity. Everyone's stock went up. Everyone felt like a genius.

中文翻译： 那时候，像Global Crossing和Level 3 Communications这样的公司正在以惊人的速度铺设光缆。他们借钱给客户购买他们的服务，客户又用这些钱购买更多容量。所有人的股票都上涨了。所有人都觉得自己是天才。

英文原文： Four years after the bubble burst, 85% to 95% of that fiber was still sitting dark in the ground, completely unused. Corning, the world's largest optical fiber producer, watched its stock crash from 100 to 1.

中文翻译： 泡沫破裂四年后，85%到95%的光纤仍然埋在地下，完全没有被使用。世界上最大的光纤生产商康宁，眼睁睁看着其股价从100美元跌到1美元。

英文原文： I didn't invest in any of those companies—not because I'm smart, but because I didn't understand how they were going to make money. My rule has always been simple: If I can't understand it, I won't invest in it. That's what I call my circle of competence, and I've spent 70 years staying inside that circle.

中文翻译： 我没有投资任何那些公司——不是因为我很聪明，而是因为我不理解他们将如何赚钱。我的原则一直很简单：如果我不懂，我就不投资。这就是我所说的能力圈，我花了70年时间待在这个圈子里。

英文原文： You might ask, "But Warren, didn't you miss out on the internet boom?" Sure did. Amazon, Google, Microsoft—all of them went on to become giants. And you know what? I'm okay with that. Because for every Amazon that survived, there were hundreds of Pets.coms that didn't. The cemetery of dead dot-com companies is filled with investors who thought they were smarter than everyone else.

中文翻译： 你可能会问，"但是巴菲特，你不是错过了互联网繁荣吗？" 确实错过了。亚马逊、谷歌、微软——它们都成了巨头。你知道吗？我觉得没关系。因为每一个存活下来的亚马逊背后，都有数百个Pets.com没能活下来。那些死去的互联网公司的墓地里，充满了自以为比别人聪明的投资者。

英文原文： Here's the thing about bubbles that most people don't understand: They're built on a foundation of truth. The internet was revolutionary. E-commerce did change retail. Cloud computing did transform business. But the question isn't whether the technology is real—it's whether the valuations make sense.

中文翻译： 关于泡沫，大多数人不明白的一点是：它们建立在事实的基础之上。互联网是具有革命性的。电子商务确实改变了零售业。云计算确实改变了商业。但问题不在于技术是否真实——而在于估值是否合理。

英文原文： In 2000, the Nasdaq reached a price-to-earnings ratio of 200. Read that again—200 times earnings. Today, we're not quite there yet. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio is sitting at about 40, approaching the third-highest level in 154 years of market history.

中文翻译： 2000年，纳斯达克的市盈率达到了200倍。再读一遍——200倍的收益。今天，我们还没到那个地步。标普500的席勒市盈率约为40倍，正接近154年市场历史上的第三高水平。

英文原文： But here's what worries me: 80% of the market's gains are concentrated in just a handful of technology stocks—the so-called "Magnificent Seven" (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla). They account for 75% of S&P 500 returns. That's not a market—that's a house of cards.

中文翻译： 但让我担心的是：市场80%的涨幅集中在仅仅几只科技股——即所谓的"七巨头"（英伟达、苹果、微软、亚马逊、 Alphabet、Meta和特斯拉）。它们占了标普500回报率的75%。这不是一个市场——这是一个纸牌屋。

英文原文： And the data just keeps getting more concerning. According to recent research, AI-related capital expenditures now account for more than half of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Let me repeat that: AI spending is the primary driver of economic growth in America right now—not consumer spending, not business investment across multiple sectors—one technology trend.

中文翻译： 而且数据越来越令人担忧。根据最近的研究，2025年上半年，与AI相关的资本支出现已占到美国GDP增长的一半以上。让我重复一遍：AI支出是目前美国经济增长的主要驱动力——不是消费者支出，不是跨多个行业的企业投资——仅仅是一个技术趋势。

英文原文： I've seen this level of concentration exactly twice before in my life: once during the "Nifty Fifty" bubble of the early 1970s, when 50 blue-chip stocks traded at absurd valuations and everyone thought they could never go down, and then again in 1999 with tech stocks. Both times ended in tears.

中文翻译： 在我一生中，我只见过两次这种程度的集中：一次是在1970年代初的"漂亮五十"泡沫时期，当时50只蓝筹股以荒谬的估值交易，所有人都认为它们永远不会下跌；另一次是在1999年的科技股时期。两次都以眼泪告终。

英文原文： The venture capital numbers are even more alarming. Nearly 64% of all U.S. venture capital in the first half of 2025 went to AI companies. For comparison, internet deals only comprised about 25% of VC investment at the peak of the dot-com boom.

中文翻译： 风险投资的数字更令人震惊。2025年上半年，美国近64%的风险投资流向了AI公司。相比之下，在互联网泡沫的顶峰时期，互联网交易仅占风险投资总额的25%左右。

英文原文： We have more than 1,300 AI startups with valuations over $100 million and 498 AI "unicorns" worth more than a billion dollars each. Most of these companies aren't profitable—in fact, 70% of funded AI startups are still losing money—but their valuations keep climbing because everyone's afraid of missing out.

中文翻译： 我们有超过1300家估值超过1亿美元的AI初创公司，以及498家各自价值超过10亿美元的AI"独角兽"。这些公司大多不盈利——事实上，70%获得资金的AI初创公司仍在亏损——但它们的估值不断攀升，因为每个人都害怕错过。

英文原文： You know what we call that in Omaha? Gambling.

中文翻译： 你知道我们在奥马哈管这叫啥吗？赌博。

英文原文： Charlie Munger, God rest his soul, used to tell me: "Warren, it's waiting that helps you as an investor—and a lot of people just can't stand to wait." Charlie understood something that most people on Wall Street never learn: Making money in the stock market is about patience, not activity.

中文翻译： 查理·芒格，愿他安息，过去常对我说："巴菲特，等待对投资者是有帮助的——而很多人就是无法忍受等待。"查理明白一些华尔街大多数人永远学不会的道理：在股市赚钱靠的是耐心，而不是频繁操作。

英文原文： Right now, I look at companies spending 22% to 30% of their revenue on capital expenditures—money they're investing in AI infrastructure. That's three times what utility companies spend, and utilities actually have predictable cash flows. Meta is planning a data center that would require over 2 gigawatts of power—enough electricity to power a small city—just to house 1.3 million Nvidia GPUs. And I have to ask: For what? To train AI models that might be obsolete in two years? To compete in a race where everyone's spending billions to maybe, possibly, hopefully generate returns sometime in the distant future?

中文翻译： 现在，我看到一些公司将其收入的22%到30%用于资本支出——他们投资于AI基础设施的钱。这是公用事业公司支出的三倍，而公用事业公司实际上拥有可预测的现金流。Meta正计划建造一个需要超过2吉瓦电力——足以支撑一个小城市的用电——的数据中心，仅仅为了容纳130万个英伟达GPU。我不得不问：为了什么？为了训练可能在两年内就过时的AI模型？为了参加一场人人都投入数十亿，只为了可能、或许、希望在遥远的未来产生回报的竞赛？

英文原文： This isn't investing. This is speculation on steroids.

中文翻译： 这不是投资。这是打了兴奋剂的投机。

英文原文： The uncomfortable truth that nobody wants to hear is this: For all this spending to pay off, AI companies need to generate 2 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. Right now, they're bringing in about 20 billion. That's a 100-fold increase in five years—not a 100% increase, a 100-fold increase.

中文翻译： 没人想听的不舒服的真相是：要让所有这些支出获得回报，AI公司需要在2030年前实现2万亿美元的年收入。目前，它们的收入约为200亿美元。这是在五年内增长100倍——不是增长100%，而是增长100倍。

英文原文： I've been in this business since 1951. I've never—and I mean never—seen an industry scale that fast while maintaining profitability. It defies the laws of business gravity.

中文翻译： 我自1951年就从事这个行业。我从未——我意思是从来没有——见过一个行业在保持盈利能力的同时，能以如此快的速度扩张。这违背了商业引力定律。

英文原文： Let me tell you something about numbers: They're stubborn things. You can dress them up, put lipstick on them, call them "adjusted EBITDA" or "AI-adjusted revenue," but at the end of the day, a business either makes money or it doesn't. And right now, the numbers in AI don't add up.

中文翻译： 让我告诉你关于数字的一件事：它们很固执。你可以打扮它们，给它们涂上口红，称它们为"调整后息税折旧摊销前利润"或"AI调整后收入"，但归根结底，一个企业要么赚钱，要么不赚钱。而现在，AI领域的数字根本对不上。

英文原文： Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are projected to spend a combined $364 billion in their 2025 fiscal years. These aren't startup companies gambling with venture capital—these are the largest, most profitable corporations in the history of capitalism, and they're spending money like drunken sailors on shore leave.

中文翻译： 微软、亚马逊、谷歌和Meta预计在2025财年将总共支出3640亿美元。这些不是用风险资本赌博的初创公司——这些是资本主义历史上最大、最盈利的公司，而它们花钱却像上岸休假的喝醉的水手。

英文原文： Microsoft just raised its capital expenditure guidance to over 120 billion for 2025. Amazon is spending 100 billion. Google bumped its forecast from 75 billion to 85 billion. Meta's at 70 to 72 billion and announced they expect "similarly significant CapEx dollar growth in 2026."

中文翻译： 微软刚刚将其2025年的资本支出指引提高到超过1200亿美元。亚马逊计划支出1000亿美元。谷歌将其预测从750亿美元提高到850亿美元。Meta在700亿到720亿美元之间，并宣布他们预计"2026年资本支出金额将有类似的大幅增长"。

英文原文： Now, I want you to understand what these numbers mean in real terms. Microsoft's $120 billion in capital spending is seven times what they spent just five years ago. Seven times. That's not growth—that's a complete transformation of their business model. And they're betting the farm that it works.

中文翻译： 现在，我想让你们理解这些数字的实际意义。微软1200亿美元的资本支出是五年前支出的七倍。七倍。这不是增长——这是他们商业模式的彻底转变。他们正在押上全部身家指望它能成功。

英文原文： But here's where it gets interesting: Despite all this spending, AI-related revenue remains a tiny fraction of their total business. Microsoft reported that their AI services had reached a 13 billion annual run rate. That sounds impressive—until you realize they're spending 120 billion to generate 13 billion in revenue. That's like spending $9 to make $1.

中文翻译： 但有趣的地方在这里：尽管有所有这些支出，AI相关收入仍然只占他们总业务的很小一部分。微软报告称，其AI服务已达到130亿美元的年化运行率。这听起来令人印象深刻——直到你意识到他们花费1200亿美元来产生130亿美元的收入。这就像花9美元去赚1美元。

英文原文： But Warren, you might say, "This is about the future. They're investing for long-term gains." And you're right—it is about the future. But there's investing for the future, and then there's speculation. The difference is simple: Can you reasonably predict the return on that investment?

中文翻译： 但是你可能会说，"巴菲特，这是为了未来。他们是在为长期收益进行投资。" 你说得对——这确实是为了未来。但有为未来的投资，也有投机。区别很简单：你能合理地预测那项投资的回报吗？

英文原文： In the dot-com era, companies like Global Crossing spent 15 billion building a worldwide fiber-optic network. The logic was impeccable: Internet traffic was doubling every 100 days, so we'd need massive capacity. Except they overbuilt by 99%. When the music stopped, that 15 billion in investment was worth pennies on the dollar.

中文翻译： 在互联网时代，像Global Crossing这样的公司花费了150亿美元建设全球光纤网络。逻辑是无懈可击的：互联网流量每100天翻一番，所以我们需要巨大的容量。只是他们过度建设了99%。当音乐停止时，那150亿美元的投资只值原价的几分之一。

英文原文： Today's AI infrastructure build-out is happening even faster and at an even larger scale. The parallel isn't just similar—it's practically identical.

中文翻译： 今天AI基础设施的建设速度更快，规模更大。这种相似之处不仅仅是类似——简直是如出一辙。

英文原文： And here's something that should terrify anyone who understands market history: This spending is being funded increasingly by debt. Meta just arranged $27 billion in off-balance-sheet financing. These companies are taking on leverage at the same time they're making massive, uncertain bets on technology that might not pay off for years, if ever.

中文翻译： 还有一点应该让任何了解市场历史的人感到恐惧：这些支出越来越多地由债务提供资金。Meta刚刚安排了270亿美元的表外融资。这些公司在承担杠杆的同时，正在对一项可能多年后——如果真有回报的话——才能见效的技术进行大规模、不确定的押注。

英文原文： I've lived through enough credit cycles to know that debt magnifies everything—both gains and losses. When things are going well, debt makes you rich faster. But when things turn, debt is what kills you.

中文翻译： 我经历了足够多的信贷周期，知道债务会放大一切——无论是收益还是损失。当事情进展顺利时，债务让你更快致富。但当情况转变时，债务会要了你的命。

英文原文： Remember, in my early days, I made the mistake of buying Berkshire Hathaway itself because I was angry at management. It was a "cigar butt" stock—cheap enough that I thought I could get one more puff out of it. That investment, which I made out of emotion rather than reason, probably cost me $200 billion in opportunity cost over the years.

中文翻译： 记住，在我早期，我犯过错误，因为对管理层不满而买入了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司本身。那是一支"烟蒂"股——足够便宜，我以为我能再吸最后一口。那项出于情感而非理性的投资，这些年来可能让我损失了2000亿美元的机会成本。

（文本来源视频号“陈佳9527”《任何投资人都要看一百遍》）

免责声明：本文基于公司法定披露内容和已公开的资料信息整理，文章不构成投资建议仅供参考。

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